Thai Agri-food Climate Investment Case
Thailand · Livestock methane

The cow
in the room.

Thailand’s livestock sector now emits more than 20 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent every year as methane from enteric fermentation alone — a figure that has nearly doubled in a decade. One species explains almost all of the rise.

15.1Mt
Beef cattle methane in 2025 (CO₂e)
75%
Beef share of livestock methane in 2025
2.3×
Growth in beef methane since 2013
60×
A dairy cow vs a pig, per head per year
Enteric fermentation by species, 2012–2025 kt CO₂e · stacked
Where it comes from

A single species, three-quarters of the methane.

Across fourteen years of inventory data, beef cattle have moved from a 64% share of livestock methane in 2013 to over 75% in 2025. Buffalo are the second-largest contributor; dairy cattle and swine are far smaller and have stayed broadly flat.

The shape of the chart matters: the dip in 2013 is real, and most years from 2017 onward have trended upward — driven by herd expansion under Thailand’s livestock-development programmes. Mitigation policy that does not name beef cattle directly will not move the national curve.

Source · Table 4 14 years · 4 species 2016 N/A
2025
75%

Of every tonne of methane Thailand’s livestock sector burps into the atmosphere, three out of four come from beef cattle. 15.1 million tonnes CO₂e in 2025 alone — and total enteric methane has more than doubled since 2013.

Manure management, 2012–2025 kt CO₂e

The picture repeats in manure management: beef cattle & swine dominate, total emissions have climbed from ~2.8 Mt CO₂e in 2019 to ~3.9 Mt in 2025.

Why so concentrated

A lactating cow emits as much methane as 60 pigs.

The totals look the way they look because per-head emission factors are wildly uneven. A single lactating dairy cow produces nearly 93 kg of CH₄ a year; a pregnant buffalo, almost as much. A pig produces 1.5 kg.

That 60-fold gap is why Thailand’s beef and buffalo herds dominate the inventory even though pigs outnumber cattle. It is also why the policy and finance levers that work — herd quality, feed additives, anaerobic digesters, breed substitution — are species-specific.

Source · Table 6 · Tier 2 EFs kg CH₄ / head / year
Methane per head per year kg CH₄ · IPCC AR5
Lactating dairy cow
92.9
Buffalo · 1st pregnancy
83.8
Beef heifer (crossbred)
69.8
Buffalo · male
68.4
Beef bull (crossbred)
65.0
Beef · fattening
55.7
Buffalo · young female
52.3
Dry cow
45.6
Swine · all categories
1.5
Investment implications

If the budget is finite, target the herd.

Three things follow directly from the data on these pages:

  1. 01 Beef cattle is the lever. Mitigation portfolios that don’t address beef won’t move Thailand’s livestock curve in any meaningful way.
  2. 02 Buffalo is the underrated second front. Per-head EFs are nearly as high as dairy; herd is concentrated; mitigation is technologically similar.
  3. 03 Pigs are not the story. Despite a population in the millions, swine contribute under 3% of livestock methane — pen-level mitigation belongs in manure management, not enteric.